Riskdials

Riskdials is a suite of Investment Risk Management tools inspired by Stanley Druckenmiller.

Riskdials guides investors during turbulent times by signaling when to exit high duration equity investments (Risk-Off phase) to avoid potential portfolio allocation mistakes caused by heightened volatility. This page showcases the Riskdials Risk-On / Risk-Off model which is the foundation of the service. To view the entire documentation for Riskdials, click here.
Sample reports that are distributed via the slack community on a daily basis can be found below:
Model Report
Ratios Report
Research Report

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About Us

Nick Givanovic

Hi, I’m Nick. I started my career as a bond trader with JP Morgan and Salomon Brothers, before running my own hedge fund in the ’90s. I retired from managing outside money in 2001 to run my family office. I’ve developed these systematic investing tools to help identify when to reduce risk exposure and when to adopt a more aggressive approach.

Robson Chow

I have spent my career in the trading and investment industries through positions in buy-side equity research, investment research for family offices, as well as risk management at energy trading firms. With Riskdials, I aim to provide exceptional investment research and tools.

The Riskdial

Better Risk Management

The Riskdial is a distillation of intermarket measurements between hundreds of assets such as SPY (S&P500) to TLT (Bonds) as well as price and volatility relationships during the trading day, scored to one single number. This score serves as a definitive measure to determine whether investors are favoring risky assets, primarily equities (Risk-On) or defensive assets, primarily bonds (Risk-Off).

The purpose of the Riskdial is to guide investors during turbulent times by signaling when to exit high duration equity investments (Risk-Off phase) to avoid potential portfolio allocation mistakes caused by heightened volatility
The primary goal ofthe Riskdia is to provide peace of mind rather than predict market tops and bottoms..
The model updates daily, pinpointing the best asset allocation tailored to current market conditions.

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The Riskdial Model

Tradewell isolated reisk-reward scatterplot

How Does the Model Work?

The Riskdial is a short-term momentum indicator that can exhibit significant fluctuations from one day to another.

To identify the overall trend of Risk-On or Risk-Off, the model utilizes moving averages.
Risk-Off periods are visually represented in grey within the model, while Risk-On periods are displayed in white.
When the short moving average crosses above the long moving average, it signals a shift to Risk-On, and conversely, when the short moving average crosses below the long moving average, it indicates a shift to Risk-Off.

The Riskdial model has a simple allocation of either SPY or Cash. The equity curve and drawdown "Buy and Hold" and "Benchmark" instruments are both SPY.

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Performance

How do we know if the Model is Working?

the Riskdial works by identifying which assets are more likely to outperform at any given moment — Risky Assets or Defensive Assets

To know whether or not it is working properly, we compare the performance of Risk-On / Risk-Off spreads since the last investment date, as well as compare the current average performance to past average performance.
The grey shaded areas represent the 25th and 75th percentile bands and maximum and minimum bands. A model that is tracking properly should see the current performance track within the historical performance.

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Riskdials

Riskdials is a suite of Investment Risk Management tools inspired by Stanley Druckenmiller.

The Riskdial

The Riskdial Model

Performance

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