Riskdials is a suite of Investment Risk Management tools inspired by Stanley Druckenmiller.

Riskdials guides investors during turbulent times by signaling when to exit high duration equity investments (Risk-Off phase) to avoid potential portfolio allocation mistakes caused by heightened volatility. This page showcases the Riskdials Risk-On / Risk-Off model which is the foundation of the service. To view the entire documentation for Riskdials, click here.
Sample reports that are distributed via the slack community on a daily basis can be found below:
Model Report
Ratios Report
Research Report

About Us
Nick Givanovic
Hi, I’m Nick. I started my career as a bond trader with JP Morgan and Salomon Brothers, before running my own hedge fund in the ’90s.  I retired from managing outside money in 2001 to run my family office.  I’ve developed these systematic investing tools to help identify when to reduce risk exposure and when to adopt a more aggressive approach.
Robson Chow
I have spent my career in the trading and investment industries through positions in buy-side equity research, investment research for family offices, as well as risk management at energy trading firms. With Riskdials, I aim to provide exceptional investment research and tools.

The Riskdial

Better Risk Management
The Riskdial is a distillation of intermarket measurements between hundreds of assets such as SPY (S&P500) to TLT (Bonds) as well as price and volatility relationships during the trading day, scored to one single number. This score serves as a definitive measure to determine whether investors are favoring risky assets, primarily equities (Risk-On) or defensive assets, primarily bonds (Risk-Off).
  • The purpose of the Riskdial is to guide investors during turbulent times by signaling when to exit high duration equity investments (Risk-Off phase) to avoid potential portfolio allocation mistakes caused by heightened volatility
  • The primary goal ofthe Riskdia is to provide peace of mind rather than predict market tops and bottoms..
  • The model updates daily, pinpointing the best asset allocation tailored to current market conditions.
Visit the tutorial

The Riskdial Model

Tradewell isolated reisk-reward scatterplot
How Does the Model Work?
The Riskdial is a short-term momentum indicator that can exhibit significant fluctuations from one day to another.
    • To identify the overall trend of Risk-On or Risk-Off, the model utilizes moving averages.
    • Risk-Off periods are visually represented in grey within the model, while Risk-On periods are displayed in white.
    • When the short moving average crosses above the long moving average, it signals a shift to Risk-On, and conversely, when the short moving average crosses below the long moving average, it indicates a shift to Risk-Off.
    • The Riskdial model has a simple allocation of either SPY or Cash.  The equity curve and drawdown "Buy and Hold" and "Benchmark" instruments are both SPY.
    Visit the tutorial


    Tradewell isolated reisk-reward scatterplot
    How do we know if the Model is Working?
    the Riskdial works by identifying which assets are more likely to outperform at any given moment — Risky Assets or Defensive Assets
    • To know whether or not it is working properly, we compare the performance of Risk-On / Risk-Off spreads since the last investment date, as well as compare the current average performance to past average performance.
    • The grey shaded areas represent the 25th and 75th percentile bands and maximum and minimum bands.  A model that is tracking properly should see the current performance track within the historical performance.
      Visit the tutorial
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      Start with the free version and then upgrade once you need to run backtests with longer lookback periods or against an expanded set of metrics.

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