Macrodials

Macrodials monitors the U.S. economy and classifies the prevailing economic regime

Macrodials guides investors during through the various economic regimes times by signaling when economic trends are weakening or strengthening. The page below highlights the Macrodials Composite model, which is the foundation of the service. Sample reports distributed via email and the slack community channel ca be found below:
Claims Report

Employment Report

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About Us

Daniel Houston

Hi I'm Dan. I have a created Macrodials to provide the highest level of context and analysis and visualization of Macroeconomic data in order to assess the overall health of the US economy.

Robson Chow

I have spent my career in the trading and investment industries through positions in buy-side equity research, investment research for family offices, as well as risk management at energy trading firms. With Macrodials, I aim to provide exceptional investment research and tools.

The Macrodial

Economic Regime Classification

The Macro Composite dial is a tool used to assess the overall health of the US economy. It combines a variety of economic indicators like employment, interest rates, housing, transportation, and inflation into one score. This score helps investors understand the direction of the economy and what phase of the economic cycle we’re in.

Updated monthly, the composite score reflects the latest economic data and trends. Think of it like a gauge on a dashboard, showing whether the economy is trending up or down. The regime classification below the score indicates the momentum of the economy based on the composite score.

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The Macrodial Model

Tradewell isolated reisk-reward scatterplot

How Does the Model Work?

The Riskdial is a short-term momentum indicator that can exhibit significant fluctuations from one day to another.

While the composite score typically shows stability, it can also vary greatly from month to month. To smooth out these fluctuations and identify the overall trend in economic indicators, a 6-month moving average is used. When this average dips below 0, it signals a shift from economic strength (Risk-On) to weakness (Risk-Off).

Components

This chart serves to showcase which economic features that the Macro Cycle Dial is composed of as well as to highlight which features have positive or negative contributions to the model score.

Features with a positive contribution are highlighted in green while features with a negative contribution are highlighted in red. Each feature receives a indicative contribution to the model score of either 1 (positive contribution),0 (no contribution) or -1 (negative contribution).
The model currently tracks 13 indicators including: 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversions, 10Y-3M Yield Curve Reversions, Unemployment Rate, Initial Claims, Continued Claims, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Private Housing Units Started, Advanced Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Personal Savings Rate, All Employees in Truck Transportation, the VIX Yield Curve Cycle and Margin Debt.

Macrodials

Macrodials monitors the U.S. economy and classifies the prevailing economic regime

The Macrodial

The Macrodial Model

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