For Traders
Click the green button to start
performing no-code quant
analysis on this security
Backtest XLC
14
The datasets from which these PYPL forecasts are drawn originate from FactSet. They represent the aggregated estimates made available to academics or practitioners via the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES). Although this seems like a fair way of predicting future profits given that they have some level expertise in investment banking, studies show there's still an optimism bias present among these professionals.

Regression-based models suffer from the use of past earnings in a linear or exponential framework. This can lead to bias because these models assume that future performance will mirror historical trends exactly, whereas business cycle dynamics and seasonality may introduce randomness over time periods.

While there is a clear consensus that a factor-based approach to investment is rewarded over time, it goes without saying that the implementation of factor investing strategies, especially in the world of long-only money-management, is rarely subject to the same consensus. Index providers who offer funds that generally contain a small number of stocks in relation to the size and risk level they are designed for, often do so by selecting certain conditions or factors within each company.

For example, some commercial indexes aim at proportionality between price movements and dividends paid out over time while others look exclusively on liquidity considerations alone; yet still more restrict their selection criteria based around corporate governance issues like transparency reports rating various aspects such as soundness levels among others relevant metrics available about any given firm when deciding whether it should be included into an investor’s portfolio.

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund Seasonality

Components
Historical price and seasonality data
PYPL forecast 2025 logoPYPL forecast 2025 logo

Seasonality

This multi-factor forecast for Paypal Holdings (PYPL) is based on a weighted average of five factor-dervied forecasts.
Backtest PYPL
PYPL forecast 2025 logo
$

XLC Seasonality Chart

Left-hand side y-axis coordinates measure return in percentage.

See seasonal chart with year by year performance

XLC Seasonal Returns

XLC Seasonal Probabilities

XLC Seasonal Returns Previous 5 Years

Month Mean Median Win Freq
January 1.65223 0.60092 50.00000
February -1.64387 -1.64387 25.00000
March -1.14014 1.04271 75.00000
April 2.99527 6.37051 75.00000
May 1.19692 1.19692 75.00000
June -0.41967 0.07129 60.00000
July 2.93091 3.07167 80.00000
August 1.68938 1.61038 60.00000
September -4.80798 -5.30915 20.00000
October -0.78589 -0.02392 50.00000
November 1.40362 1.40362 50.00000
December 0.25604 2.26426 75.00000
All Seasonality Visualizations

XLC Seasonal Returns Previous 5 Years

Month Mean
January 1.65223
February -1.64387
March -1.14014
April 2.99527
May 1.19692
June -0.41967
July 2.93091
August 1.68938
September -4.80798
October -0.78589
November 1.40362
December 0.25604

About Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

About Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLC is an exchange traded fund whose portfolio is comprised of US communications services stocks. This investment seeks to provide the same performance as stocks in the Communications Services Select Sector Index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Communication Services companies by the GICS®, including securities from industries such as telecommunication services, wireless providers, entertainment and media conglomerates.

When is the best month to buy XLC?

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund has performed the best during the month of April, during which shares have returned an average of 3% over the last 5 years.

When is the worst month to buy XLC?

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund has performed the worst during the month of September, during which shares have returned an average of -4.81% over the last 5 years.
About Market Seasonality
Seasonality can be defined as the predictable changes that occur over a one-year period in an economy, market or business, based on the seasons of the calendar year.

Academic research supports the notion that seasonal pricing patterns occur with regularity in futures contracts of commodities with fixed maturities, most notably in the natural gas and crude oil markets.

For example, Ewald, Haugom, Stordal, Lien and Wu find evidence for seasonality in futures products that appears distinct from the seasonal patterns in spot price for the respective commodities.

Traders often attempt to take advantage of seasonal patterns through spread trades that hold long and short positions in assets of differing maturities simultaneously or across related assets in financial products such as equity sector ETFs, index futures or commodities.

Investors in individual equities may take seasonality into account when when analyzing the impact that seasonal changes may have on the fortunes of particular companies. For example, for many businesses, sales can vary depending on the season. In such cases, the share prices of business that experience higher profits during specific seasons may simultaneously register significant gains while later giving them back during off-peak periods.
All Seasonality Visualizations

Seasonality

This chart shows the seasonal tendencies  of the share price of Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLC over the last 5 years.
Components
Historical price and seasonality data
PYPL forecast 2025 logoPYPL forecast 2025 logo
PYPL forecast 2025 logo
XLC
Guest Commentary
Robson Chow is a hedge fund manager
Trending
Tradewell is not responsible for the content, data, or information on third-party websites or provided by third-party data providers. We publish links to various external sources and data from various data providers as a convenience, but we cannot verify any claims made by those sites and cannot guarantee that they are safe interpretations of information provided within these pages. If you choose to visit a linked site or consume data, you do so at your own risk and you will be subject to such sites' terms of use and privacy policies, over which Tradewell has no control. Tradewell shall not be liable for any damages incurred by visiting the linked sites or by making decisions or interpreting the data published on webpages or in the Tradewell app.

The information contained on this website is current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The views and opinions expressed on this website are those of the authors alone - they do not necessarily reflect those held by Tradwell, its affiliates nor employees alike. Investors should be aware that the information expressed in articles is not intended to relate specifically to any product offered by Tradewell. It's being provided for informational purposes only and cannot serve as investment advice or guidance on your individual financial situation.

Any hypothetical performance shown is based on the retrospective application of a model developed with hindsight. While these results are presented for illustrative purposes only, it's important to note that there may be limitations built into any projection.

Certain articles may have been written prior to the author being an employee or contractor of Tradewell. The views expressed on the website are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Tradewell. Published material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice, nor is it intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney or tax advisor.