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The datasets from which these PYPL forecasts are drawn originate from FactSet. They represent the aggregated estimates made available to academics or practitioners via the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES). Although this seems like a fair way of predicting future profits given that they have some level expertise in investment banking, studies show there's still an optimism bias present among these professionals.

Regression-based models suffer from the use of past earnings in a linear or exponential framework. This can lead to bias because these models assume that future performance will mirror historical trends exactly, whereas business cycle dynamics and seasonality may introduce randomness over time periods.

While there is a clear consensus that a factor-based approach to investment is rewarded over time, it goes without saying that the implementation of factor investing strategies, especially in the world of long-only money-management, is rarely subject to the same consensus. Index providers who offer funds that generally contain a small number of stocks in relation to the size and risk level they are designed for, often do so by selecting certain conditions or factors within each company.

For example, some commercial indexes aim at proportionality between price movements and dividends paid out over time while others look exclusively on liquidity considerations alone; yet still more restrict their selection criteria based around corporate governance issues like transparency reports rating various aspects such as soundness levels among others relevant metrics available about any given firm when deciding whether it should be included into an investor’s portfolio.

SPDR Gold Trust Seasonality

Historical price and seasonality data
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This multi-factor forecast for Paypal Holdings (PYPL) is based on a weighted average of five factor-dervied forecasts.
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GLD Seasonality Chart

Left-hand side y-axis coordinates measure return in percentage.

GLD Seasonal Returns

GLD Seasonal Probabilities

GLD Seasonal Returns Previous 19 Years

Month Mean
January 3.12450
February 1.31315
March -0.68389
April 1.64237
May -0.48013
June -0.09617
July 1.05488
August 1.52812
September -0.40712
October 0.06869
November 1.03582
December 0.72988
Month Mean Median Win Freq
January 3.12450 3.22236 66.67000
February 1.31315 1.70160 55.56000
March -0.68389 -0.70108 33.33000
April 1.64237 1.26846 55.56000
May -0.48013 -0.93671 38.89000
June -0.09617 -1.48873 44.44000
July 1.05488 1.05488 61.11000
August 1.52812 1.19427 72.22000
September -0.40712 -1.74331 38.89000
October 0.06869 0.06869 50.00000
November 1.03582 0.37921 52.63000
December 0.72988 1.53056 55.56000
All Seasonality Visualizations

About SPDR Gold Trust

GLD seeks to mirror the performance of gold bullion. The underlying assets of the exchange-traded security are gold bars held by the Trust. From time to time the fund issues Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold. The Trust's investment objective is to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less expenses. Shares may provide exposure to fluctuations in the price of gold and represent an alternative to investing directly in physical gold.
Best month to buy GLD
SPDR Gold Trust has tended to perform the best during the month of January, during which shares have historically returned an average of 3.1.
Worst month to buy GLD
SPDR Gold Trust has tended to perform the worst during the month of March, during which shares have historically returned an average of -0.7.
About Market Seasonality
Seasonality can be defined as the predictable changes that occur over a one-year period in an economy, market or business, based on the seasons of the calendar year.

Traders often attempt to take advantage of seasonal patterns by holding long and short positions in assets simultaneously in the same or a related markets, such as equity sectors, index futures or commodities.

Investors in individual equities may take seasonality into account when when analyzing the impact that seasonal changes may have on the fortunes of particular companies. For example, for many businesses, sales can vary depending on the season. In such cases, the share prices of business that experience higher profits during specific seasons may simultaneously register significant gains while later giving them back during off-peak periods.Seasonality can be defined as the predictable changes that occur over a one-year period in an economy, market or business, based on the seasons of the calendar year.
All Seasonality Visualizations


This chart shows the seasonal tendencies  of the share price of Apple Inc GLD over the last 40 years.
Historical price and seasonality data
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Guest Commentary
Robson Chow is a hedge fund manager
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Any hypothetical performance shown is based on the retrospective application of a model developed with hindsight. While these results are presented for illustrative purposes only, it's important to note that there may be limitations built into any projection.

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