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14
The datasets from which these PYPL forecasts are drawn originate from FactSet. They represent the aggregated estimates made available to academics or practitioners via the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES). Although this seems like a fair way of predicting future profits given that they have some level expertise in investment banking, studies show there's still an optimism bias present among these professionals.

Regression-based models suffer from the use of past earnings in a linear or exponential framework. This can lead to bias because these models assume that future performance will mirror historical trends exactly, whereas business cycle dynamics and seasonality may introduce randomness over time periods.

While there is a clear consensus that a factor-based approach to investment is rewarded over time, it goes without saying that the implementation of factor investing strategies, especially in the world of long-only money-management, is rarely subject to the same consensus. Index providers who offer funds that generally contain a small number of stocks in relation to the size and risk level they are designed for, often do so by selecting certain conditions or factors within each company.

For example, some commercial indexes aim at proportionality between price movements and dividends paid out over time while others look exclusively on liquidity considerations alone; yet still more restrict their selection criteria based around corporate governance issues like transparency reports rating various aspects such as soundness levels among others relevant metrics available about any given firm when deciding whether it should be included into an investor’s portfolio.

Soybean Oil CoT Positioning

Components
CFTC net positioning data
PYPL forecast 2025 logo

Seasonality

This multi-factor forecast for Paypal Holdings (PYPL) is based on a weighted average of five factor-dervied forecasts.
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Soybean Oil CoT Survey Positioning Ranks

Left-hand side y-axis coordinates measure return in percentage.

Individual Positioning Charts

Commodity

Asset Category

Sugar 11

Softs

Orange Juice

Softs

Lumber

Softs

Cotton

Softs

Coffee

Softs

Cocoa

Softs

Live Cattle

Livestock

Lean Hogs

Livestock

Feeder Cattle

Livestock

Platinum

Metals

Palladium

Metals

Silver

Metals

Gold

Metals

Copper

Metals

Wheat

Grains

Soybeans

Grains

Soybean Oil

Grains

Soybean Meal

Grains

Corn

Grains

RBOB Gasoline

Energy

Natural Gas

Energy

Heating Oil

Energy

Crude Oil

Energy

All CoT Visualizations

Commodity

Asset Category

Exchange

Sugar 11

Softs

ICE/US

Orange Juice

Softs

ICE/US

Lumber

Softs

CME

Cotton

Softs

ICE/US

Cocoa

Softs

ICE/US

Live Cattle

Livestock

CME

Lean Hogs

Livestock

CME

Feeder Cattle

Livestock

CME

Platinum

Metals

NYMEX

Palladium

Metals

NYMEX

Silver

Metals

COMEX

Gold

Metals

COMEX

Copper

Metals

COMEX

Wheat

Grains

CBOT

Soybeans

Grains

CBOT

Soybean Oil

Grains

CBOT

Soybean Meal

Grains

CBOT

Corn

Grains

CBOT

RBOB Gasoline

Energy

NYMEX

Natural Gas

Energy

NYMEX

Heating Oil

Energy

NYMEX

Crude Oil

Energy

NYMEX

About CoT Data
The Commitments of Traders (CoT) is a weekly market report that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issues. It lists the holdings of traders in different futures markets in the United States. The report covers positions in futures for grains, cattle, financial instruments, metals, energy and other commodities.
About Trader Identities
A Producer is a business that makes, processes, packs or sells physical products. Producers use futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with their products.

The term Money Manager refers to an entity that trades commodities on behalf of investor clients. They must be registered with the CFTC. Money managers include registered commodity trading advisors, commodity pool operators, and unregistered funds.

Other Reportables are traders who use the markets to reduce business risk from foreign exchange, stocks, and interest rates. This category includes corporate treasuries, central banks, smaller banks, mortgage originators, credit unions and any other reportable traders not assigned to the other three categories.
All CoT Visualizations

Positioning

This chart shows the 3 most recent years of trader positioning data for Soybean Oil.
Components
CFTC net positioning data
PYPL forecast 2025 logo
Guest Commentary
Robson Chow is a hedge fund manager