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14
The datasets from which these PYPL forecasts are drawn originate from FactSet. They represent the aggregated estimates made available to academics or practitioners via the Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES). Although this seems like a fair way of predicting future profits given that they have some level expertise in investment banking, studies show there's still an optimism bias present among these professionals.

Regression-based models suffer from the use of past earnings in a linear or exponential framework. This can lead to bias because these models assume that future performance will mirror historical trends exactly, whereas business cycle dynamics and seasonality may introduce randomness over time periods.

While there is a clear consensus that a factor-based approach to investment is rewarded over time, it goes without saying that the implementation of factor investing strategies, especially in the world of long-only money-management, is rarely subject to the same consensus. Index providers who offer funds that generally contain a small number of stocks in relation to the size and risk level they are designed for, often do so by selecting certain conditions or factors within each company.

For example, some commercial indexes aim at proportionality between price movements and dividends paid out over time while others look exclusively on liquidity considerations alone; yet still more restrict their selection criteria based around corporate governance issues like transparency reports rating various aspects such as soundness levels among others relevant metrics available about any given firm when deciding whether it should be included into an investor’s portfolio.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Positioning

Components
CFTC net positioning data
PYPL forecast 2025 logo

Seasonality

This multi-factor forecast for Paypal Holdings (PYPL) is based on a weighted average of five factor-dervied forecasts.
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Dow Jones Mini CoT Survey Positioning Ranks

Left-hand side y-axis coordinates measure return in percentage.

Individual Positioning Charts

Commodity

Asset Category

VIX

Indices

S&P Mini

Indices

Mini Russell

Indices

Mini Nasdaq

Indices

Mini Dow Jones

Indices

Bitcoin

Crypto

Ultra Treasury

Rates

Treasury Bond

Rates

10-year Note

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5-Year Note

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2-Year Note

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3-Month Eurollar

Rates

US Dollar

Currencies

Swiss Franc

Currencies

South African Rand

Currencies

Mexican Peso

Currencies

Japanese Yen

Currencies

Euro

Currencies

Canadian Dollar

Currencies

British Pound

Currencies

Brazilian Real

Currencies

Australian Dollar

Currencies

All CoT Visualizations

Futures Contract

Asset Category

Exchange

VIX

Indices

CFE

S&P Mini

Indices

CME

Mini Russell

Indices

CME

Mini Nasdaq

Indices

CME

Mini Dow Jones

Indices

CBOT

Bitcoin

Crypto

CME

Ultra Treasury

Rates

CBOT

Treasury Bond

Rates

CBOT

10-year Note

Rates

CBOT

5-Year Note

Rates

CBOT

2-Year Note

Rates

CBOT

Eurodollar

Rates

CMT

US Dollar

Currencies

ICE/US

Swiss Franc

Currencies

CME

South African Rand

Currencies

CME

Japanese Yen

Currencies

CME

Euro

Currencies

CME

Canadian Dollar

Currencies

CME

British Pound

Currencies

CME

Brazilian Real

Currencies

CME

Australian Dollar

Currencies

CME

About CoT Data
The Commitments of Traders (CoT) is a weekly market report that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issues. It lists the holdings of traders in different futures markets in the United States. The report covers positions in futures for grains, cattle, financial instruments, metals, energy and other commodities.
About Trader Identities
The term Leveraged Funds refers to Hedge Funds and various types of money managers, including registered commodity trading advisors (CTAs); registered commodity pool operators (CPOs) or unregistered funds identified by CFTC.3.

Asset Managers are financial entities such as institutions, like pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, and mutual funds.

Other Reportables are traders who use the markets to reduce business risk from foreign exchange, stocks, and interest rates. This category includes corporate treasuries, central banks, smaller banks, mortgage originators, credit unions and any other reportable traders not assigned to the other three categories.
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Positioning

This chart shows the 3 most recent years of trader positioning data for Dow Jones Mini.
Components
CFTC net positioning data
PYPL forecast 2025 logo
PYPL forecast 2025 logo
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Guest Commentary
Robson Chow is a hedge fund manager